偶尔受到坛友的各种PM，请恕我没有精力一一回复。 我会在未来有闲情的时候做个简要的内训材料
这是给某人面试前写的东西，一些关键概念。
课本里的材料过理论化，所以因该关注一下更实用化的题目。
I. 针对上市公司的估值/分析，很可能问这些名词的意思。。。
1. Equity Value or Market Capitalization (市值 = 每股价格 * 总股票量, 市值代表这家公司的股票价值), from Bloomberg or Google Finance or Yahoo Finance websites
2. Total Debt (总债务 = 短期债务 + 长期债务), from company’s Balance Sheet (资产负债表)
3. Cash (现金), from company’s Balance Sheet
4. Minority Interests (少数股东权益), from company’s Balance Sheet
5. Enterprise Value (企业价值 = 市值 + 总债务 - 现金 + 少数股东权益), “EV” 就是这么算出来的
6. P/E (price to earnings) 市盈率 =每股价格 / (净利润/总股票量)，same as市值/净利润
7. EBITDA (EBIT is operating profit, D&A is depreciation and amortization), from Company’s Income Statement (盈损表，Profit & Loss, P&L) 推算出来的. EBITDA与现金流 (free cashflow)很相似，有时候我们会用它来代表free cashflow 的. 一般EBIT就是”operating profit”, 从P&L 摘下来。D&A (折旧) 可以从Cashflow Statement (现金流表) 摘下来.
8. EV/EBITDA (enterprise value to EBITDA), EV 就是以上（１至４）算出来的。EV/EBITDA 算出来是个倍数，与P/E的作用很相似，用来估值。
II. Valuation – How do you value a company? Basically 3 ways.
1. If the company is public (上市的), then you can just look at its market capitalization from Bloomberg, Google or Yahoo Finance, look at its 52-week high, 52-week low prices, and also research analysts (研究报告) will have a view on the company
2. If the company is not public: you can use Comparables (可比公司分析) 。用公司２or 3年的预测。
a. 可比P/E. 如果你看的公司没上市（公司X），可以先找一些同行业，同规模，同地点的可比已上市公司，算一下这些公司的P/E and EV/EBTIDA. 如果你选了12家可比公司，平均P/E是10倍，你可以用公司Ｘ的净利润 (net profit, 比如明后年3亿) 成以这同行业平均P/E10倍。 3亿成10倍＝30亿的市值 (Market Capitalization, 公司的股票价值).
b. 可比EV/EBITDA. 同样方法，如果可比公司平均EV/EBITDA是5倍，你可以用公司Ｘ的EBITDA(比如明后8亿) 成以这同行业平均EV/EBITDA 5倍。 8亿成5倍＝40亿的企业价值 (Enterprise Value!!). Enterprise Value is different from Market Capitalization, so you have to solve for Market Capitalization now. 看看以上＃５ (企业价值 = 市值 + 总债务 - 现金 + 少数股东权益), 现在40亿是企业价值，要想得到市值(或股票价值), 必须用这个公式倒算出来。你得找到公司Ｘ的total debt, cash and minority interests from its Balance Sheet!
c. 一般可比P/E 估值方法是相对于增长速度快的公司Ｘ， 可比EV/EBITDA估值方法是给已经有好的现金流的公司Ｘ
3. DCF (discounted cashflow, 折线现金流). 上市的或没上市的公司都可以用。 用公司10年的预测。
a. Discount Rate – WACC (weighted average cost of capital). 这个你可以看一下教材书。其实就是公司的Cost of Equity and Cost of Debt合并在一起。 Cost of Equity是 用CAPM model算得. Cost of Debt 可以说就是公司从银行借钱需要的利息率。
b. Unlevered Free Cashflow – 看一下附件. Free Cashflow 就是EBIT (operating profit) – Tax + D&A – Capex – Change in Working Capital. 这个数有时候与EBITDA很相似。 Capex is “capital expenditure”, 可以在现金流表里找到， Change in Working Capital 也是。
c. After you found Discount Rate and Free Cashflow for say the next 10 years, then you can discount it back to today, to get a NPV. This NPV is the Enterprise Value of the firm.
d. Terminal Value – Usually you will need to calculate a terminal value. 因为你刚刚才算了10年的估值，以后好几十年的得用Terminal Value来估值。 Terminal Value 一般有两种，Perpetual Growth (Gordon Growth Model), 或 EV/EBITDA Multiple.
e. 算完Terminal Value, 再加到刚刚算得free cashflow NPV, 就是最终的Enterprise Value (企业价值). 记住要想得到股票价值，还得用公式＃５。
Oh there is another Comparable analysis, it is called Precedent Transactions. This is for M&A deals. Usually you look at EV/EBITDA.
Basically, you look at how much the Acquirer paid for the Target company, say 500 million dollars (equity value). Then you look at Target company's EBITDA, say 100 million dollars. And Target company's total debt is 50 million and cash is 20 million. So, EV is 500+50-10 = 540 million dollars. EV/EBITDA = 5.4x.
So now you can use this information to value how much you want to pay for Company X in the same industry. If Company X has EBITDA 200 million, then you can roughly estimate a reasonable price using a previous case study - 5.4x EV/EBITDA.
So, often bankers look at historical M&A case studies to determine the value of a new potential transaction.
Hope this helps!
[本帖最后由 熊市亨利 于 2012-2-25 19:28 编辑]
